Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
